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ELI5 Yahaaa

More orders than atoms nearby

Has Anyone Ever Had This Hand Before?

The number of ways to arrange a pack is so large that every good shuffle is almost certainly new.

1 52 choices forthe first card2×51 for thenext, 50 forthe next…3 A number with68 digits
Multiplying small numbers gets out of hand fast.
  1. Step 1 of 5

    Every card taken reduces the choices.

    1 52 ways2×× 51 × 50 × …3×× 3 × 2 × 1

    Fifty-two cards could go first. Whichever went, fifty-one could go second. The choices shrink but they multiply together.

  2. Step 2 of 5

    Multiplying is what makes it enormous.

    Added+About 1,400Multiplied×8 followed by 67 digits

    Adding fifty-two numbers gives a few thousand. Multiplying them gives a number with sixty-eight digits, and that difference is the whole point.

  3. Step 3 of 5

    The number is beyond any comparison.

    Grains of sand on Eartha 20-digitnumberAtoms in a human bodya 27-digitnumberOrders of a card packa 68-digitnumber

    It is vastly more than the atoms in the Earth. Every human who has ever shuffled has not made a dent in the possibilities.

  4. Step 4 of 5

    So a proper shuffle is almost certainly unique.

    Well shuffled Almost certainly newBarely shuffled Very likely seen before

    Not guaranteed — just so overwhelmingly likely that no shuffle in history has ever needed to repeat one.

  5. Step 5 of 5

    Which is why shuffling badly matters.

    Three shufflesstill patternedSeven shufflesproperly random

    A new pack in order needs about seven riffle shuffles to genuinely scramble. Three leaves enough of the old order to be readable.

    Casinos use machines partly because human shuffling is far less thorough than it looks.

The short version

A pack has a 68-digit number of possible orders, so a properly shuffled deck has almost certainly never existed before.

Try it yourself

Work out the orders of just five cards: 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120. Now imagine doing that fifty-two times.

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